Sunday, 18 June 2017

David Davis may soon be British Prime Minister


I have come to think that David Davis will be the new British Prime Minister, and tonight I see the Daily Telegraph says that many Conservative MPs in Boris Johnson's camp now think so too. Theresa May must go and I think he is the only option. 

On the other hand, if Theresa May goes it will be because she failed to be win enough seats at the election. This will put her successor, who won't have led his party into an election, in a very odd position.

Theresa May emerged without the party members voting. Can the same thing happen again? Ideally yes, but if Mr Davis stands surely Mr Hammond would stand against him. 

In any case, although the decision should be taken by MPs alone, this might nowadays seem unsatisfactory, so much weakened is the authority of Parliament.

A contested election would be a contest over what sort of Brexit to aim for and presumably be won by Mr Davis, because most party members are Leave. Would this be good or bad?

Theresa May and her two sinister advisers hijacked Brexit. We now need a Leaver to take over. Boris does not have the command of detail or gravitas and he is wounded by his promise to spend 
£350 million a week on the NHS

We can't have another election before we leave the EU but afterwards it is very possible that Jeremy Corbyn will win because of economic turbulence. I think Parliament may go the full five years, but that partly depends on by elections (and conceivably Sinn Fein).

I had at first thought that an early election was inevitable. I now think it is impossible while the Conservatives keeps the confidence of the House of Commons. The DUP will want this Parliament to go on for five years and so will the SNP. It therefore will go on until the Conservatives are sure that they will win an election. After the last one this point might well never come.

The latest poll aggregation from Britain Elects:
LAB: 44%
CON: 41%
LDEM: 6%
UKIP: 2%

1 comment:

  1. Davis at the Brexit talks looked seedy, disheveled and browbeaten. Is the best the tories can hope for?